WASHINGTON - Iraq's largest dam is in danger of collapse and hundreds of thousands of people are at risk from a massive flood in Mosul and Baghdad, according to US documents released Tuesday.
US experts have warned Baghdad that the Mosul dam on the Tigris River in northern Iraq could buckle under water pressure and let loose a 20 meter (66 foot) wave onto the regions below, based on assessments by the US Army Corps of Engineers (ACE).
"In terms of internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world .... If a small problem (at) Mosul Dam occurs, failure is likely," the ACE concluded last year.
It called the current probability of dam failure "exceptionally high," according to the report.
The ACE comments were included in a review of dam fortification work by the US Special Inspector General for Iraqi Construction (SIGIR) dated October 29 and released on the Internet Tuesday.
The SIGIR report also includes a May 3, 2007 letter to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki from US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and US military commander General David Petraeus in which they warned of the risk of a massive disaster if the dam breaks.
"A catastrophic failure of the Mosul Dam would result in flooding along the Tigris River all the way to Baghdad," the two US officials said, noting that just 50 kilometres (30 miles) downstream is the city of Mosul, with 1.7 million people.
"Assuming a worst case scenario, an instantaneous failure of Mosul Dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood wave 20 meters deep at the city of Mosul, which would result in a significant loss of life and property.
The SIGIR report also said the 27 million dollar project initiated two years ago by the now-named US Iraq Transition Assistance Office with the Corps of Engineers' Gulf Region-North division to help strengthen the dam, has been marred by incompetence, mismanagement and potential fraud.
The report said SIGIR's most recent inspection concludes that the project has made no headway in improving grout injection operations, and said that poor oversight had allowed millions of dollars in construction and equipment to go to waste.
"At the time of our site visit, approximately 19.4 million dollars worth of equipment and materials delivered to the Mosul dam ... currently do not provide benefit to the Ministry of Water Resources," said the SIGIR report.
The Mosul dam, completed in northern Iraq in 1984 to supply water to surrounding populations for irrigation and to generate electricity, was constructed atop gypsum and limestone soils that erode with exposure to water, leaving cavities beneath the structure.
Since its completion the Iraqi government has sought to shore up the foundation by injecting mortar-like grout into the subsoil and cavities and controlling seepage.
The operations have continued since the 1980s 24 hours a day, six days a week, pouring more than 200 tonnes of grout a year into the foundation.
Nevertheless, the SIGIR report said, sinkholes have regularly appeared near the dam, including one very close in 2005.
The letter from Crocker and Petraeus called on Maliki to take urgent mitigating actions to lessen the immediate danger to the dam, including keeping the water at no higher an elevation than 319 meters (1,047 feet) compared to the reservoir's maximum 330 meters (1,083 feet), to reduce pressure on the dam.
They stressed that the grouting operation should "remain a high national priority" and that emergency alert and evacuation operations were needed for the dam and downstream.
They also emphasized the need to "continue development of permanent solutions to the safety threat" of the dam.
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This a part of old Saddam regime mistake who carelessly building a massive dam atop of gypsum and limestone soil. But if the dam finally broke, US occupation force would also share the blame, who would be blamed due to their inability in keeping their promise in upholding the safety of Iraqi people.
The new Iraqi government is nearly ineffective in dealing with this kind of trouble. If US want to prevent another disaster in term of both Iraqi lives and their legitimacy in their occupation duty in Iraq, they need to move fast, by start sending engineers to the dam.
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